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Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Sun warming

Shifted up to lie alongside the other global warming article today.

Last week we were discussing the contribution of the sun to "climate change", in a thread about bad science reporting. Last month a paper looking at just that subject was published in Geophysical Research Letters, a respectable journal unlike (say) the NZ Herald. The full article is not free to view, as with many journals you need a subscription. The abstract is here. Another article reports on the paper
The Duke analyses examined solar changes over 22 years versus 11 years used in previous studies. The cooling effect of volcanoes and cyclical shifts in ocean currents can have a greater negative impact on the accuracy of shorter data periods.

"The Sun may have minimally contributed about 10 to 30 percent of the 1980-2002 global surface warming," the researchers said in a statement today.

Many questions remain, however. For example, scientists do not have a good grasp of how much Earth absorbs or reflects sunlight.

"We don't know what the Sun will do in the future," Scafetta says. "For now, if our analysis is correct, I think it is important to correct the climate models so that they include reliable sensitivity to solar activity. Once that is done, then it will be possible to better understand what has happened during the past hundred years."
Changes in the Sun are estimated at a minimum to have caused 10-30% change on Earth, but the more important point is that knowledge about the Sun is poor an so is knowledge of the properties of the Earth in this respect. Here is another article from the same site about uncertainties involved in climate modelling.

Posted by Chefen | 10/04/2005 07:35:00 pm


Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

I still like this post - but no comments. Maybe we've worn the whole climate thing out?

10/05/2005 12:05:00 am  
Blogger Chefen said...

Probably worn out, and when a proper article says "we've really got a pretty poor grasp about a lot of it at the moment" and DOESN'T leap to the apocalypse then no one is really interested. The enviro-wombats are only interested in the moralising anyway, not the actual science.

10/05/2005 12:07:00 am  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Last sentence - very true.

10/05/2005 01:08:00 am  

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