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Tuesday, September 06, 2005


I'm surprised there has not been more close analysis of the implications of recent poll trends viz a viz the 'two horse race.' Having plugged in a few figures based on a relatively insignificant continuation of recent trends, it looks to me as though the Gnats might be an awful lot closer to governing in their own right than any commentators care to admit.

Using the current poll figures for the two major players and assuming Act poll 1.8% but fail to win Epsom; both Greens and WP fail to make five percent by a small margin and Winston loses Tauranga, MP get four seats, then with 46% party vote, the Gnats have a majority on their own. With The Dunny in tow they have a comfortable majority of 9 seats.

Why is it that the professional commentators look just at poll figures without speculating on the trends? That's the really interesting bit. Any old mug can plug figures into a calculator and write boring reports on the results. That's all we seem to get.

Meanwhile, the plot thickens.

Update: Using the same scenario with ACT taking Epsom and pulling say 3% party vote the scene changes somewhat for the better, if you are centre right supporter. Gnats/Act have joint majority of 5 which turns into 11 if the Dunny Party comes along for the ride on supply and confidence.

Posted by Adolf Fiinkensein | 9/06/2005 12:24:00 pm


Blogger RightWingDeathBeast said...

I can't see the Greens and NZF and Act ALL gone.

It's quite possible though. NZF is the party most likely to disappear IMHO, but fingers crossed for the Greens to get exactly 4.99%.

9/06/2005 12:50:00 pm  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Can't you? I certainly can. That's the remarkable trend. It's almost as though mainstram NZ is saying 'to hell with this MMP lark' let's get back to FFP where we can have real politicians instead of the 'colourful' rabble of the moment. (I don't include ACT in that descriptor)

9/06/2005 01:00:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

9/06/2005 01:27:00 pm  
Blogger JamesP said...

I can see one or perhaps two of those parties not making it but I think all three is a long shot at this stage (subject to further poll changes). NZF is the most likely since everyone has had a gutsfull of Winston. A bad performance with his coalition strategy announcement tomorrow and he's goneburger. ACT is looking hopeful in Epsom but tactical votes from the left could spoil the comeback. Sadly the Greens look set to stay hovering above 5%.

9/06/2005 01:39:00 pm  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Well, once along time ago, I was known as The Fearless Forecaster

9/06/2005 01:43:00 pm  
Anonymous Ryan said...

Finkster, has there been an update on the beef you raised with Beith re: the PSA's Labour Letter factory?

9/06/2005 03:15:00 pm  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Anonymous: I don't think you should be commenting on unreleased poll results. I've deleted your comment.

9/06/2005 03:17:00 pm  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

I must say Finkster is better than Sphincter!!!!!

Yes, I had a eply from Mr Atkisnon. It was to the effect that there was nothihng untoward in the PSA activity from the point of view of the SSC, so long as the activity did not take place on Gummint property of involve the use of Gummint resources. There was a similar comment on DPF's site so I pursued it no further.

Of course the small matter of 600,000 Labour Letters might get a different reaction if drawn to the attention of the Electoral Commissioner with questions asked about the inclusion of associated costs in the Labour Party's electoral costs declaration. There is also the isuue of ALL LAbour's pamphlets at a recent Banks Pennisular candidates meeting bearing the parliamentary seal. This was noted by grant Tyrell on NZPundit the other day.

They are a devious, dishonest bunch of thieves.

9/06/2005 03:38:00 pm  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

PS I understand Gman is writing to the Electoral Commisioner on the PSA/Labour costs matter.

9/06/2005 03:40:00 pm  
Anonymous Psycho Milt said...

Thanks for the tips. By the sound of it, I need to hold my nose and vote Green, to help them clear the threshold and keep the Nats from forming a govt on 46% of the vote. Cheers!

9/06/2005 10:44:00 pm  

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