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Monday, August 29, 2005


This morning Clark $1.28; Brash $3.25

This afternoon Clark $1.40; Brash $2.70

I'm not sure whether this is simply a reflection of the money placed on each runner or a booky's considered opinion of the likely result on the current evidence.

Posted by Adolf Fiinkensein | 8/29/2005 03:04:00 pm


Blogger Jimmy Jangles said...

Centrebet is perhaps seeing it closer than that but the big money punters are backing Helen more - thus Centrebet could be inflating Don's odds to attract money the other way.....

8/29/2005 03:35:00 pm  
Blogger Berend de Boer said...

No guys, these bets don't work that way. They don't reflect likelyhood of winning. Bookies make their moneylines by dividing them into two groups: those likely to bet on Clark and those likely to bet on Brash. These groups should be equal, else everyone would be buying Clark and no one Brash for example. And they would make a loss.

No, they need as many people buying Clark as they have people buying Brash.

My guess is that the Clark/Brash distance was mainly driven by the guy who bet $50,000 on Clark. They had to move their lines, else they would end up with a loss. I suppose enough people have bought Brash now and the election result was closer, so they're moving the line.

But don't make the mistake of assigning probabilities of winning to them. They're probabilities to divide the betters into two equal groups.

8/29/2005 08:30:00 pm  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Interesting. Does sports betting in the States work the same way?

8/29/2005 08:32:00 pm  
Blogger Bomber said...

Centrebet's swinging back to my odds. I offer National-Labour head-to-head party vote and not next PM like Centrebet so it's a bit different because Don won't have a reliable partner to make him PM easily and so he's structurally disadvantaged.

Brash was a $3.25 at one stage which is just too good to turn down and, yes, I think smart money at that rate would have gone on Brash. Now they have to ease it out again. They tend to be aggressive to attract punters and they over-react to single events, eg. the TV3 leaders debate. There are a lot of forces at work in their calculations. Mine are simplier and more stable, tracking the trends. I haven't moved it in a while because of the instability and I'm not surprised Centrebet has moved closer to my head-to-head positioning.

Offering odds for all the parties now BTW.

8/29/2005 09:56:00 pm  
Blogger Bomber said...

Brash at $3.25 was way too good to turn down. And how!

Clark $1.50
Brash $2.40

Kapow! Must of been a big punt dropped on Brash to shift it like that.

8/30/2005 01:29:00 am  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Only a couple of grand plus the majority of new bets being put on Brash, surely thats all that was needed.

8/30/2005 05:52:00 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Berend, when I said "attract money the other way..... " I meant this was done so Centrebet would reduce their risk. Perhaps my first line was off.

U did explain it better than me though. It just like mad kiwis blindly betting on the all blacks - the TAB is likely gonna lose money so ups the ante on the other team to encourage that balancing act.

8/30/2005 08:58:00 am  
Blogger Berend de Boer said...

al, yes, that's what market makers do. They're just brokers, they make money by facilitating making bets. They will lose money if betters put all their money heavily on one side.

t selwyin: it's a pity one cannot sell bets. That's why I like tradesports so much. You can surf small waves like this. The drawback is that there might be no one taking up your your $50,000 bet.

8/30/2005 04:43:00 pm  

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