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Monday, May 30, 2005

Richard Worth and Rodney Hide in Epsom

Nick Bryant of NBR Newsroom has a good post up on National's Epsom candidate Richard Worth and Act candidate Rodney Hide.

I repeat it here because their permalinks are broken:
It was a slow news night, granted, but I'm a little surprised that both main news networks' political angle on Sunday evening was "no deals for Act," following the announcement of National's list. There was only ever potentially one "deal for Act," which was Epsom MP Richard Worth taking a list-only return ticket back to parliament, leaving Act leader Rodney Hide an unhindered run in Epsom and guaranteeing Act's return to parliament as well (should it not receive 5% of the party vote.) That neither network noticed that was essentially what National had done by promoting Worth from 25 to 16 on National's list is a little surprising. As Richard Prebble points out in today's issue of The Letter: "[Worth] is guaranteed a place in the next parliament on the list. This means Epsom voters can now vote for Rodney Hide knowing Worth is safe." It wouldn't be foolish to wonder whether Worth campaigning for the seat might still put Rodney at risk of losing again. However, the relatively narrow margins by which Rodney has failed to gain the seat suggest only a small swing - on the back of a "Worth is safe" campaign - will be required for Rodney to win Epsom at the next election.
Sounds fair enough to me. I can't see why National would risk having Act's 2-4.9% wasted, forcing them to rely more on NZ First, United Future or the Maori Party to form a coalition Government.

Please visit the NBR blog rather than commenting here.

UPDATE: As pointed out by Davros, Bryant appears to have incorrect foundations for his argument. Richard Worth is presently the 15th ranked National MP in Parliament. His position at 16 on this years list is justified by Judy Kirk's statement that National MP's would primarily be listed in order of their Parliamentary ranking. Worth's drop of one is caused by Tim Groser's entry position at 13. So Worth's position is entirely justified by standard National Party policy.

Posted by Antarctic Lemur | 5/30/2005 05:39:00 pm


Blogger Davros said...

The NBR's assumption is incorrect -How could Worth have been below his parliamentary ranking? Everyone is ranked according to their parliamentary ranking thus Brash is no.1 Rich no. 10 etc...(excepting of course Mr Grosser)There's little difference between no 16 and 26 anyway unless National did worse than their last election. Worth would have been safe either way. There is no story here other than that the NBR journalist doesn't understand Parliament.

5/30/2005 06:13:00 pm  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

You're right about the Parliamentary ranking - Worth is 15th in Parliament, indicating Groser has pushed him down one seat.

Judy Kirk clearly said current Parliamentary ranking was the priority for list seat ordering (Groser aside).

5/30/2005 06:18:00 pm  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Doesn't alter the thrust of the hypothesis though. Gnats in Epsom can happilly vote strategically to get Rodney Hide into the house if they think that will help defeat the Socialist enemy and I think they will do just that if Act is not polling well over fivr percent..

5/30/2005 08:27:00 pm  
Blogger Berend de Boer said...

Adolf, I hope they will do that regardless if Act is polling over five percent. I get sick of the ACT dying theme, we've to hear that every election. Why no stories about the Greens, the Alliance and United Future dipping below the 5%? The chances of less green this year are a lot higher than no ACT.

5/30/2005 08:41:00 pm  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Agrees Berend. You are flavour of the month for lazy jounos.

5/30/2005 08:52:00 pm  
Blogger Aaron Bhatnagar said...

If ACT wants Epsom they will have to earn it. There is no real campaign in Epsom to speak of - I simply have not seen the activity that justifies this blind faith that Rodney Hide will win Epsom.

5/30/2005 08:56:00 pm  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Ahhh - but who will you give your electorate vote to Aaron?

5/30/2005 09:00:00 pm  
Blogger Aaron Bhatnagar said...

I'd like to think that I will be asked for my vote before I decide to give it to someone. Peter Cresswell need not apply :-)

5/30/2005 09:09:00 pm  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

You have to admit he'd make a better electorate MP than Worth, at least from what I've heard about the man.

Fortunately I'm not living in Epsom (or Mt Albert!) this time around.

5/30/2005 09:13:00 pm  
Blogger Gooner said...

Has the campaign started?

Considering it hasn't I'm not surprised Rodney has yet to start campaigning. The prize is for 1st across the finish line, not 1st across the start line.

5/31/2005 09:00:00 am  
Blogger Aaron Bhatnagar said...

Gooner - Rodney Hide had direct mail being sent out in December of 1998 for the election in November 1999. The time for Rodney to have started campaigning for Epsom was months ago. As someone who notices political communications in the letterbox, I have not noticed much from ACT - certainly nothing that suggests a desire to campaign directly for Epsom.

And yes, 1st across the finish line is the only goal that matters. Its just that with Richard Worth's headstart as incumbent and National's general resurgence, I would have expected the campaign to be well underway by Rodney's team.

6/01/2005 01:35:00 pm  

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