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Saturday, April 16, 2005

Nats Conference

Aaron Bhatnagar is running excellent blog coverage of the Nats conference.

National's Chairman for Auckland Region, Scott Simpson, says polling company's use the question 'do you follow NZ politics' as a screening question for inclusion in the poll results! The same post mentions undecided's being excluded, but im not sure if this is true for some polls. I would like to know if NZ polling company's 'weight' results based on the previous election results, as happens in the USA.

Gerry Brownlee's speech is also worth a gander. Adolf has already commented on John Key's speech.

Posted by Antarctic Lemur | 4/16/2005 02:27:00 pm


Blogger David Farrar said...

It is somewhat dangerous to scale on the basis of whom people say they voted for last time, as people forget etc.

The best scaling is done on objective criteria such as age, gender and geography.

4/16/2005 03:27:00 pm  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

I find the recent poll results highly suspicious given the Tamihere revelations. I would like to know exactly what screening questions are asked, as well as the weighting system used to 'smooth' consecutive polls.

4/16/2005 03:38:00 pm  
Blogger Aaron Bhatnagar said...

DPF is right - in general election polls - you poll everyone because of the high turnout. The only worthy screening question is "Will you be voting in the upcoming election", and if someone gives a definite "no" should you exclude them.

4/16/2005 05:39:00 pm  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Again, I rest my case. The polls are bullshit for pols.

4/17/2005 09:22:00 am  

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