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Thursday, October 13, 2005

Voter Fraud in 2005 election?

David Farrar, that political geek, has done a good deed. He has posted the results from the election that show all the breakdowns.

Here are the general statistics for informal votes - both Party and Electorate.

Usually at an election each polling booth will have between 10-20 informal electorate votes.Here is the Northcote electorate (by way of example) showing 296 informal candidate votes - an average of about 13 per booth. Informal votes range from voters putting crosses insead of ticks, putting lines through names or circling name. All this happens. There is even the odd person who will, intentionally or accidentally, vote twice. Strangely, some elderly folk forget they vote! Then there is the polling booth worker who will record the wrong name meaning when that voter casts a correct vote it is recorded he/she has voted twice and this can also be picked up if a voter has moved house and on election day they have to cast a special vote not knowing they may have already 'voted'. The Police follow up on some of these illegal/double votes but it's not taken too seriously. Usually only a phone call suffices. There's been the odd prosecution.

Of course this year we had the easyvote card. These, and the abuse they are open to, have been discussed here and here.

Here's a scenario for you. Believe it or not.

In areas where there is a large amount of state housing and/or where residents are more transient (South Auckland as an example) houses are visited and the resident is asked if Joe Bloggs is still living there. The answer is no (if you have the state house database you might already know that). Then, the visitor suggests that because Joe Bloggs is no longer living there he won't need his easyvote card. It is collected. On election day the easyvote card is used and a vote is cast for the preferred candidate or party. What this 'voter' is counting on is the fact Joe Bloggs won't vote because he hasn't got his easyvote card. If Joe Bloggs does vote then he has cast two votes and they are invalid. If the real Joe Bloggs doesn't vote (and considering the voter make-up of these voters there is a good chance he might not) the vote cast with the easvote card counts. Of course, it isn't too difficult to also steal the voter packs from letterboxes when they are posted or pick them up off front lawns after they have fallen out the back of the letterbox.

We know for certain that Labour went on a big 'recruiting' drive in South Auckland. Not recruiting for the Labour Party as such (but that may have happened), but getting people enrolled on the electoral rolls! Mike Williams admitted this on election night. The result? Go hereand look at the party vote for the three South Auckland seats of Mangere, Manukau East & Manurewa. Look at the special votes disallowed, the general informal votes and then look at the percentage of these votes to the electors on the master roll (ie low turnouts in these seats compared with the rest of the electorates and much higher informal and disallowed special votes). Then go here for the electorate vote for these electorates and check out the 000's and compare them to the 00's for the rest.

Makes you think aye?

Posted by Gooner | 10/13/2005 09:49:00 PM

20 Comments:

Blogger Joe Hendren said...

Given there is more private housing than state housing in south Auckland, and taking your assumption of a transient population, I would think it would be landlords who would have easier access to uncollected easyvote cards of previous tenants - and landlords would be more likely to vote to the right.

Of course all of this is speculation - unless you have video evidence of people robbing people's mailboxes - I didn't think so! :)

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Mike Williams encouraging people to enroll, nor is there anything wrong with the Nats doing the same - a good turnout gives greater legitimacy to all parties.

10/14/2005 01:51:00 AM  
Blogger Whaleoil said...

When I was doing a blue dot system in Eden Electorate in the in the dim dark past we would pick up double, triple and quadruple voting as early as 11:00 on voting day.

10/14/2005 07:44:00 AM  
Blogger Graeme Edgeler said...

Most special votes are votes cast by people who enrolled to vote within the final month.

Special votes are more lkely to be challenged as invalid.

If Labour (or anyone) ran campaigns in particular areas to get people enrolled after the official written roll was closed then there would be more special votes and more invalid votes in those electorates.

It's not complicated. Or surprising.

10/14/2005 08:25:00 AM  
Blogger Gooner said...

Joe - I never said there was anything wrong with encouraging people to enrol. As for your landlord scenario, well that's a possibility I guess but I would be interested to see the actual breakdown on the disallowed specials and how they came about especially when the number is far greater in these three electorates than elsewhere in the country.

Graeme - sure, but why would Laboour go on a huge recruiting/enrolling drive in South Auckland only for those enrolled voters to have their votes disallowed? Of course, you might argue the same applies to my 'theory'.
But under mine the vote would count if the transient voter didn't vote.

10/14/2005 08:43:00 AM  
Blogger Berend de Boer said...

I'm sure the media won't be interested in this story.

10/14/2005 08:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Poor, poor neglected rightwingers! Could it be that there will be no media interst, solely because this "story" exits only in your paranoid imaginations?

johnie

10/14/2005 09:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Again the boys at Sir Humphrey further demonstrate why no one takes them seriously.
And your right Berend, I’m sure the media won’t be interested in this story, not because there is a ‘vast left wing conspiracy’ but more the good reason that you guys are well renowned as having a ridiculously tenuous grasp on reality and this story is but a figment of your paranoid deluded minds
Grow up

10/14/2005 10:00:00 AM  
Blogger darren said...

Either the people in South Auckland are particulalrly forgetful when it comes to voting.
Or there are some remarkable coincidences here.
I think Mike Williams did let the cat out of the bag on election night.
So what do we get to interest the MSM?

10/14/2005 10:10:00 AM  
Blogger Gooner said...

Anon - care to share your theory on why there were disproportionately large numbers of disallowed specials in these three seats?

What will your response be when someone gets the breakdown from the Electoral Commission and it is discovered a lot of the disallowed specials were votes cast outside the electorates which were also cast in the electorates?

10/14/2005 10:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is putting a cross instead of a tick considered an informal vote!!!???

10/14/2005 04:07:00 PM  
Blogger Gooner said...

I believe so.

10/14/2005 04:45:00 PM  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Gooner and anon. My reading of late is that the matter of a cross or tick is no longer significant due to new legislation arising out of Winston's Hun ua antics. That's what it use to be but now so long as your intentin is clear from your 'mark' you vote is deemed to be valid. So if someone drew a little heart alongside Hide in epsom, the vote would not be disallowed.

10/14/2005 05:08:00 PM  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Anon. Last week some 40,000 overseas viewers took the boys and girls at Sir Humphrey's very seriously. There is nothing paranoid or delusional about our minds. I have asked the electoral commission for the comparable figures from the 2002 elections for the four electorates in question. Only then will we see whether there is any substance to it. The alternative explanation is that the four electorates are populated by a larger than normal proportion of dumb bastards like you.

10/14/2005 05:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Adolf I think lots of those viewers would have come for a laugh like me.

- Wind up

10/14/2005 05:16:00 PM  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Wind up. Yes you are a laugh. Dolt.

10/14/2005 05:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rightwing blogland is increasingly visited for entertainment - read the agressive paranoia and hyperbole as satire, and the place becomes as comical as landoverbaptist. This will be the source of your visits...

johnie

10/14/2005 07:01:00 PM  
Blogger ZenTiger said...

Johnnie, what do you expect when you and wind-up (for example) drop by and the only thing you can contribute to the thread is either snide put downs or derisive comments?

Pointing out that right-wingers react strongly to rudeness and lack of respect for an opinion by dishing it back with compound interest doesn't really do the defence case much good.

"Your honour, I went and punched them in the nose and they over-reacted by kicking my head in"

It's like (some) left-wingers think baiting is fine, but get upset if the response isn't equal. And then they make out they are polite (they are not) and left wing blogs are polite (not always) and this is all a terrible shock (cry me a river!)

There are, of course, exceptions to every rule. So far, you don't appear to be one.

10/14/2005 08:13:00 PM  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Wind up and johnie, you'll be pleased to know the next 40,000 visitors are on their way in to Sir Hump's today. Of course these are people who have left school, have lived life outside the sheltered halls of academe and who actually have a grip on reality. Why don't you go and try their liestyle?

10/15/2005 03:55:00 PM  
Blogger Paul said...

I find wind-up and johnie quite amusing. They never advance an argument because they tend to be void of argument, rather, they type out standard mantra or septic attempts at sarcasm. I’d prefer to be challenged by logical argument and debate. Johnie, if you really want to participate give some arguments some thought. Otherwise you will be regarded as some spotty kid with his cap on backwards and brain wired wrong.

10/15/2005 09:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What arguments can be presented against articles of faith? Saint Ayn and Saint Margaret have set out the sacred path, and the souls of the faithful are put at risk by deviation.

johnie

10/16/2005 08:29:00 AM  

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