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Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Sweden pulling further right

According to an election expert, the centre-right in Sweden is bound to win next year's election
Sweden's centre-right parties, which have not held power in Sweden since the Social Democrat victory in 1994, appear set to win the next election, according to election expert Sören Holmberg.

The centre-right Alliance is 5 percentage points ahead of the socialist block. This is an historically unassailable lead, given that it is less than one year until the election. This is according to political magazine Riksdag & Departement, which cites election researcher Professor Sören Holmberg.
Now I'd have thought that a five point lead was less than "unassailable", but then the dynamics of Swedish politics seem to be different. There are no polarising issues like NZ has, no Treaty, no race to speak of etc. The closest you get is immigration which is not really that big a vote catcher and both major parties have similar policies anyway. Both support EU membership. The difference is basically welfare policies, and Sweden seems to be pulling away from the old socialist model as people come to realise that the government can't deal with chronic unemployment by creating non-productive public sector jobs while still offering overly generous welfare schemes without increasing taxes beyond tolerance. Then there is the fact that the right has rarely held power in Sweden over the last 80 years, so really what we see now is the outcome of the socialist policies... and people don't like it much. So maybe a five point lead is "unassailable". One year to go.
· Linked Article

Posted by Chefen | 10/11/2005 07:19:00 pm


Blogger The Doorman said...

Sweden's 'centre-right' parties would be classified as being to the left of Labour here, so I wouldn't get your hopes up.

10/12/2005 10:29:00 am  
Blogger Chefen said...

No they aren't. The Moderates are running on a platform of tax cuts/reform and reform to the welfare system, cutting down the sick leave allowances and other generous portions of the state. The liberals and centre party lie more towards the centre but they opposition block, including the christian democrats, has pretty much settled on their economic policy for the coming election. When Labour proposes cutting taxes and reducing benefits, then I'll agree that the Moderates are to the left of them.

10/12/2005 06:09:00 pm  

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