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Sunday, October 23, 2005

Leadership? What Leadership?

Since September 17th we have been bombarded with concocted MSM stories about National Party leadership 'issues.' None of these stories have been founded in any truth other than the feverish imaginations of a few vocally enhanced and mentally impaired reporters.

I know I don't read every single newspaper or see and hear every piece of radio or TV pontifiction but I have not seen or heard any serious analysis of the leadership 'issues' which might beset parties other than National. Apart from, that is, some perfunctory (that'll send the leftie fourth formers rushing for their dictionaries) comment on Clark's eventual successor. So, dear readers, here are one or two Adolpian observations and predictions.

Dr Brash will lead the Gnats into the next election, whether it is sooner or later. (I think more likely sooner although the weight of experienced opinion seems to favour Clark going full term.) Dr Brash did better than most people expected and ordinary people I think will punish National if the party is seen to ditch a leader who has presided over such a turn around in electoral fortunes. I suspect now he has tasted success he will want more of it and I doubt he will walk away this term.

I don't accept the apparently widespread feeling expressed by 'the right' that Labour will lose the next election. Sure the economy is heading for a downer and the Gummint is a camel with a much humped Foriegn Minister but I believe Clark's ego will demand that she achieves the unbelievable feat of a fourth term with a decisive margin. Labour has demonstrated it is well and trully capable of organising such a feat and it has been shown to have exceptional resources (unions and media) on its side. As far as leadership goes, I suggest any serious challenge is unlikely, even if the next election is lost. Maharey has no substance, Mallard has no finesse, Cullen has no credibility.

Winston & Dunny
They and their so called parties are both history. They booked their funeral plots the day they entered coalition with Labour.

Rodney Hide will struggle to hold Epsom if National puts up a strong candidate. (I think if National has a brain it will not do so) However, I don't see any other viable leader in the offing so I reckon he should have a pretty clear run. Parliament would be so dull without him.

Maori Party
For me, Tariana Turia has been the class act of the last two years. She has transformed her image from the Motua Gardens shouter into that of a clever and shrewd politician, well able to find the right balance between principle and pragmatism. Above all else, she has maintained her dignity and the respect of friends and foes, unlike Peters and Dunne. I must say Hone Harawira (wash my mouth out with soap - up North, Harawira is the Pakeha word for trouble) has come across well on TV. Better than the two leaders, I thought but I can't see TT moving over. PS maybe.

Genetix and Phishing have lost it. They commited the unpardonable sin of making themselves and their party look like a mob of dils at the hands of Domnatrix. And they did it so well. I have been greatly impressed with the transformation of Sue Bradford (as with Turia) from the screaming maniacal 'rent a crowd' empressario into a competent and useful politician and parliamentarian. I think she will be made leader, sooner rather than later, and will rebuild the Greens with their core constituency and I think they will do quite well, come the next race.

Who have I missed out? Anyone important? Jamdertin is just Labour's answer to MMP.

Posted by Adolf Fiinkensein | 10/23/2005 07:53:00 AM


Blogger ZenTiger said...

I find myself mostly in agreement Adolf.

Although, regarding the Greens, many followers (and I use that term deliberately) seem to have elevated Jeanette to Mother Earth status, and the devout loyalties will likely win through for at least another 3 years.

But the recent events indicate the Greens have a wide spread of opinion on which policies are the key ones, and this in turn will shape internal debate.

The latest negotiations have all the appearance that the top hierarchy don't think Peak Oil is that urgent from a policy perspective - and looks to me it's being used as a political rallying point.

10/23/2005 10:40:00 AM  
Blogger Jesus Crux said...

time for Heather Roy to become co-leader of ACT (more thoughts at partyvoteact.blogspot.com)

10/24/2005 10:27:00 AM  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Co-leadership means no leadership. It is a device dreamed up by the same people who brought us NCEA in or4der to make sure there could no longer be winners and losers, achievers and dead beats or good and bad.

10/24/2005 12:36:00 PM  

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