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Friday, October 21, 2005

Damn the Kyoto protocol!!!

Brace yourself: it's going to be a cold winter.

In fact, the British Meteorological Office, which has just released its latest long term prognosis, is warning of the coldest winter in ten years for northern Europe.

"The last few years have been mild, and we've got used to that," said meteorologist John Hammond to The Local.

"But this year the temperature will be below average for the first time in ten years," he said.

And given that an "average" winter in Sweden is pretty chilly, it might be worth investing in an extra set of thermal underwear.

Hammond said that the prediction has a certainty of about 65% - which is accurate enough for forecasters to make a special warning.

"Obviously the coldest parts of Sweden this winter will be in the north, as always. But southern Sweden will see temperatures fall further below the average," he said.

The prediction, which is for December, January and February, is based on the temperature of the North Atlantic and in the atmosphere. The Met Office research suggests that as well as being colder than average it will also be drier, with a weaker west wind than usual.

"We can't say exactly how cold it will be. And we don't know if it will be a white Christmas," said Hammond.
OK so in practise it probably means something like -25 degrees instead of the normal -20 here in Gothenburg. But damnit, when is the Med coming to Scandinavia??? I bought a house out of the city at a somewhat higher in elevation so that when the place becomes subtropical and the lowlands flood to give me a nice sea outlook I'll make a killing. Ah well, at least the houses here are actually thickly insulated and dry; and my district is an old English ski area so maybe I can still make out. Roll on the ice age!
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Posted by Chefen | 10/21/2005 12:34:00 AM

4 Comments:

Blogger Bernard Woolley said...

Thats strange, because I'm sure I read somewhere recently that the US was expecting a more mild winter - I think I stumbled across it terms of oil demand for the upcoming winter, perhaps after Katrina or Rita.

10/21/2005 08:16:00 AM  
Blogger ZenTiger said...

Maybe we have just hit "peak warming".

10/21/2005 09:08:00 AM  
Blogger Tane said...

Well a cooling Europe is entirely consistent with global warming. The average temperature rises, but some places will get colder.

This has to do with the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current, which bring warm water from the Gulf of Mexico up past Spain, Ireland and Iceland. This is what gives northern Europe a mild climate when it's on the same latitude as Labrador and Siberia (places not noted for their warmth). As the warm water cools, it sinks (due to greater salt concentration I think), which creates a conveyor effect, as it flows back south, below the warm water above heading north.

As glaciers in Greenland melt and retreat (as they are), the greater flow of fresh water prevents the 'sinking' effect of the salty water, by diluting it. The global warming effect works like this;

More heat in Greenland
more ice melts
more fresh water in the Atlantic
less sinking
less conveyor effect
less warm Gulf water in Europe
colder Europe

So the net effect of global warming is probably a warmer planet, with a colder northern Europe.

I should add that this particular winter may be cold for an entirely unrelated reason, not global warming. Don't ask me what, I'm just talking about a scientific theory.

Do a google search on 'thermohaline' for more info.

10/21/2005 01:14:00 PM  
Blogger Chefen said...

Yes everything is consistent with global warming, cold winters, hot winters, too many hurricanes, not enough hurricanes,... But you might have noticed the post was tongue-in-cheek.

10/21/2005 06:07:00 PM  

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