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Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Clark Snookered

Unverified reports indicate National, NZ First, United and the Maori Party have reached agreement to forma coalition government with 62 seats. ACT were not mentioned.

Pita Sharples is alleged to have indicated National will give them what they want on the Foreskins and Seaweed Act, saying ‘enshrining Maori seats in perpetuity may not be as as simple as earlier thought, nor even possible.

UPDATE By AL - Adolf probably heard this on National Radio. A commenter on Kiwiblog noted it as well:
Ive just heard on radio that National, NZ First, Maori and peter dunns lot are seriously talking about forming a govt that would have 62 seats.

Sharples says that Nat will give them a turn over of the seabed act and that 'making the maori seats permanent isnt as simple as it looks'

Very interesting times.
Posted by bernard at October 12, 2005 03:16 PM
The NewstalkZB item:
A National-led centre right Government is looking to be a possibility - with the Maori Party seeming to back away from its original demands.

The party has met with National, New Zealand First and United Future to talk about the possibility of linking up.

The four parties would command a majority of 62 seats.

Maori Party co leader Pita Sharples says the hui held around the country have told the MPs the decision on who to support is theirs to make.

Mr Sharples says the party is still opposed to the Foreshore and Seabed Act and would like the Maori seats entrenched. But he now acknowledges that it is more complex than that.

He says the Maori Party's bottom line is to have three good years in Parliament.

Clark Courts New Zealand First

The threat of National forming the next Government appears to be getting to Helen Clark.

She is now trying to convince New Zealand First to commit fully to supporting Labour on confidence and supply, as opposed to the party abstaining.

Miss Clark says New Zealand First is a critical part of the arrangements which need to be put in place to ensure stability over the full three-year term of this Parliament.

She says New Zealand First has consistently taken the position that stability in Government is its highest priority and they are exploring the best way for this to be achieved.
For once I'll watch the TV news this evening.

UPDATE2: An earlier report from Soper/Newstalk ZB:
Political editor Barry Soper says Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia instigated a meeting with National, New Zealand First and United Future with the intention of exploring the possibility of forming a centre-right Government.

Posted by Adolf Fiinkensein | 10/12/2005 05:13:00 PM


Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Now Adolf... this is about 6.5 months early.

10/12/2005 03:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is anyone else having problems with the font?


10/12/2005 04:02:00 PM  
Blogger andrewfalloon said...

You're joking...right??

10/12/2005 04:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

o please that will be a heaven sent for the left when it comes crashing down within a month
Do it, and they will ensure leftwing governments in this country for the next decade

10/12/2005 04:23:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't do it Don!

10/12/2005 04:40:00 PM  
Blogger JamesP said...

Well short of a new constitution nothing can be "enshrined in perpituity". Even entrenchment can be undone with a simple majority and a sufficiently determined government. Which is a good thing because legislation should remain in place because it is still useful, relevant, and supported, not because someone thought it was important at the time.

As for a Nat/NZF/UF/MP govt, I don't see it happening becuase NZF and MP have diametrically opposed views on the foreshore and seabed law. As far as I can see the MP is just angling for a better deal and the Nats are trying to get a speaker who won't be a Helen Clark sock-puppet.

And whatever happens it sucks that half the country are going to be willing the government to fall flat on its face. Yes it may be a "heaven sent" opportunity for your political faction but it won't be good for NZ.

10/12/2005 04:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cant say I think this is a good idea. The Maori party is an unknown element (though we have several times when they have said something positively scary) and the last coalition with NZ First wasnt exactly a screaming success.

A big problem with forming a government with a smaller party is that you get branded with their extremism. Labour and the Greens may not see eye to eye on a lot of things, but any legislation that the Greens managed to influence was still branded with the Labour trademark.


10/12/2005 05:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Please let this not be true Rather that the Lefties cobble together the Coalition from Hell.With the economy heading south Interest rates about to head north Inflation 4% plus this is a good time to be in Opposition firing Scuds at a lame duck governemnt

10/12/2005 05:00:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Like others I wouldn't be in favour of such a coalition. I suspect that this is a strategy by National to force the price Labour must pay for NZF or/and MP support. Labour probably also believe this but they can't afford to take the chance. MP and NZ F. in a very strong position....Baxter

10/12/2005 05:06:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Adolf heard it on radio. Someone else commented about it on Kiwiblog:

Ive just heard on radio that National, NZ First, Maori and peter dunns lot are seriously talking about forming a govt that would have 62 seats.

Sharples says that Nat will give them a turn over of the seabed act and that 'making the maori seats permanent isnt as simple as it looks'

Very interesting times.
Posted by bernard at October 12, 2005 03:16 PM



10/12/2005 05:08:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

I suggest everyone watches the TV news tonight for more hints.

10/12/2005 05:09:00 PM  
Blogger Ashley Clarkson said...

Yes, I am not seeing this as a realistic occurrence, but rather the minor parties bidding up the price, and National playing the game to put Labour in a fragile position. Long may it continue, especially if it gives some folk a few sleepless nights.

10/12/2005 05:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I bet this bears as much fruit for you guys as your "Peter Davis expose" hope!

10/12/2005 05:24:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Anonymous, we are not a propaganda outlet. We discuss matters of interest to us, and Clark's marriage possibly being a scam to forward her political career counts, as does the Maori Party being interested in forming a coalition with the centre-right parties.

10/12/2005 05:27:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

er scam=sham

10/12/2005 05:27:00 PM  
Blogger Lucyna said...

I hope it does happen. Hopefully it will bury the S59 repeal. With Don at the helm, the crash landing we are heading for might actually pull out in time. It's actually better for the country if the left don't get in.

10/12/2005 05:33:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Yes better for the country, but the theme of commenters here appears to be 'its bad for the right!'. Not sure if I agree with that philosophy.

10/12/2005 05:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Its about thinking long term AL. A shaky coalition may hold up for a year or two, but after that defections and conflicting interests will inevitably swing support away from the centre right.

With several small (and mouthy) parties to negotiate with do you really think National would be able to get through the changes you think are necessary for the country? Might it not be preferable to hold on for another three (HA!) years, benefit from increased voter dissatisfaction, gain an outright majority and implement ALL the of the objectives?

It is game thoery really. Do we form a shaky, impotent and probable one term government now, or do we wait and form a strong multi-term, direction changing government in the future?


10/12/2005 05:50:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

On the other hand, Brash and co must convince the public they can band together and control a motley crew as that is the reality of MMP. National can't keep hoping for a return to FPP where the composition of government is largely handed to them on a plate, because it's not going to happen in the near future - if ever.

10/12/2005 05:53:00 PM  
Blogger Lucyna said...

Nothing on 3 News about it. On One, they've just been saying Winston Peters really needs to join Labour to form a Govt. Could just be a few days.

10/12/2005 06:08:00 PM  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Oh well, if it's made a few left leaning sphincters quiver it's been a good thing. I tend to agree with Lucyna in that I too hope it does happen but I'd worry more about winston than I would about Tariana and Pita. You'd have to promise Winston his knoghthood and hogshead of Glen Livet after the next successful election. See? Politics is dead easy when you think about it and deal with just the real issues.

10/12/2005 06:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Meanwhile, back in the real world. national radio reports that labour and winnie are heading towards a full confidence and supply deal...


10/12/2005 10:01:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

One of the troubles of hoping for a right win next time is the number of people leaving the country. If there are three more years of Labour then 100,000 more will leave. And I'm guessing that most of those will be center right supporters, since they have at least a modicum of initiative and some skills to earn a living. Nine years of Labour means a loss of 300,000 people.

That's a big swing you need just to keep pace with your supporters getting pissed off and heading overseas for higher incomes, lower taxes, and better government services. And the problem is only going to increase as the gap between Aussie and Kiwi incomes grows.

10/12/2005 10:48:00 PM  
Blogger Heine said...

Brilliant! The Nats will have the power they so love and will backtrack on all the good ACT policies they said they would adoptas well. Add that to their coalitions partners getting pissed off each time the Nats try and pull a few swifties and you will see ACT increase its vote at the next very soon election!

10/12/2005 11:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well i watched the news as directed by AL and the only hint i heard was that Labour and NZF have nearly clinched a deal
The only people propagating the myth the right can form a governemnt is Mad Dog and the Maori party. O and Barry sopper who is stupid enough to listen to the aformentioned idiots

10/13/2005 09:13:00 AM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Yes, was a waste of time watching the TV news.

"As directed"?!?

10/13/2005 12:34:00 PM  
Blogger Lucyna said...

See what type of control you exert on our readers, AL? We'll have to remember this power for the next election...

10/13/2005 12:45:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Scary eh. But I do have some furniture that needs painting...

10/13/2005 01:01:00 PM  
Blogger Paul said...

This post is getting even more relevant. I caught TV One news tonight with Brash, Hide and Sharples appearing to actively stand united in support of the wanganga protesters!

Gee, adding NZP to that mix must leave Helen and the vegans concerned.

10/13/2005 09:59:00 PM  
Blogger Paul said...

Woops, and the Jim Anderton Progessives ... athough I do wish he would singularise the "progressives" bit. His ego doesn't count towards a plural.

10/13/2005 10:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i want a re-election..(nandor would get back in ..and the greens would get more mps....)

but back in the real world ...brash is just doing his job..by making things as awkward as possible for clark...

and the maori party are being understandably petulant over being ignored..

(btw..that model will divide and rule any grouping of maori party/grn to the left of clark....by holding the greens close clark is just following the ancient maxim on dealing with potential rivals...)

i must admit..i am looking with some trepidation/uncertainty at the possibilities/impossibilities of a lab/nzfirst/grn government..cor..!
who'd have thought..?
(i wonder how frog will hop to justify/explain/extoll any such grouping...)

(rod and winston smiling at each other across the table..?..(shudder..)

though of course, the really good news in that grouping is that dunne is left frothing and impotent...

interesting times ahead...methinks..


10/14/2005 10:36:00 AM  
Blogger Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Phil, if the Sea Squirt Minister allows the destruction of the countries shellfish industry you might get another general election sooner than you think. You might not just not get Nandor in, you might get a hell of a lot less than 5%, your lot having been part of the gummint debacle which has sat on it's hands and done nothng. About one thing you are right. Interesting times.

10/14/2005 10:54:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

peters is the sea-squirt..or perhaps that other infestation with a name like a new dance-party drug..(having a night out on the didymon..)


10/14/2005 11:43:00 AM  

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