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Saturday, September 17, 2005

Election results - updated regularly

NEWSFLASH: Plane stolen from Ardmore, man threatening to crash into Sky Tower. Clark being evac'd by DPS? Police in contact with pilot. Plane crashes into sea just off Kohi Beach! Pilot in hospital with "moderate injuries". Idolblog has some eyewitness reports and a couple of crappy photos.

NEWSFLASH 2: Clark tells senior Labour MP's not to talk with the media.

UPDATE: Brash speech: crowd chanting 'Don Don Don Don Brash in the house'.

Brash: 'It's been a long night, it's been a good night. As the president said we have almost doubled our party vote from the last election. And we've brought in 11 new electorates. [emphasizes Tauranga as a gain]. And I'd like to thank all New Zealanders who put their trust in the National Party by voting for us tonight. As you know, we're not quite there yet. We can't yet claim a victory, but I am certainly not conceding defeat. In the next few days and potentially weeks, there are two stages to go. Firstly the special votes. And we don't yet know how those will work out. But secondly there's a small matter of building a coalition government. And it is not at all clear who will be able to do that. My colleagues and i will be working urgently over the next few weeks. There goal will be a National-lead Government. Let me say to all New Zealanders that if we're successful in doing that, it will be a government which will govern on behalf of all NZers. Maori NZers, Pacific Island New Zealanders, Asian New Zealanders, New Zealanders of European descent. Indians too. Homemakes, farmers, business people, police officers, teachers, nurses, all New Zealanders. And we will be working hard to achieve that goal over the next few days and weeks.

UPDATE2: Clark speech forthcoming. Peters is hanging around waiting for it.

Clark: Glad we have opportunity to begin negotiations to form a new government.

UPDATE3: 218,000 special votes to be counted. Labour's margin over National: ~25,000.

Results taken from: 2005 General Election Results.

Updated @ 12:01am

Party vote
counted = 100% (122)
Lab 40.74% (50)
Nats 39.63% (49)
NZF 5.84% (7)
Greens 5.07% (6)
UNF 2.72% (3)
Maori 1.98% (4, 2 of these are overhang)
Act 1.52% (2)
Progressives 1.21% (1)

If UNF and NZF go into opposition with National and Act:

49 + 7(?) + 3 + 2 = 61
50 + 6 + 1 + 4(?) = 61

If Winston Peters goes with Labour:
49 + 3 + 2 = 54
50 + 7 + 6 + 1 + 4(?) = 68

IF UNF goes with Labour, Greens and MP give confidence of supply:
49 + 7 + 2 = 58
50 + 3 + 1 = 54
6 + 4 = 10

Can't see MP offering National confidence of supply if Act and NZF are involved, but here's that scenario just in case:
49 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 2 = 65
50 + 6 + 1 = 57

Epsom - calling Epsom for Hide. No longer monitoring it.
Hide 4623
Worth 3720
Looks like Nats voting Hide in Epsom aren't rewarding Act with their party votes: National with 2497, Labour with 735, Act with 126.

Tauranga - calling Tauranga for Clarkson. No longer monitoring it.
Bob Clarkson 4324
Winston Peters 3358

Maori seats

Tamaki Makaurau
- Calling for Sharples. Tamihere out of Parliament.
Sharples 5076
Tamihere 4155

Maori Party with 4: Te Tau Hauauru, Tamaki Makaurau, Te Tai Tokerau, Waiariki
Labour Party with 3.

2(?) seat overhang in Parliament due to Maori Party winning more electorate seats than party vote % would otherwise give them.

Posted by Antarctic Lemur | 9/17/2005 07:16:00 PM


Blogger Berend de Boer said...

Centrebet and Colmar/Brunton seem to have done it again.

9/17/2005 07:40:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Looks like a trouncing of the Left tonight. The Greens and Act might firm up as more results from urban centres come in.

XtraMSN's flash applet is pretty damned cool.

9/17/2005 07:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Lindsay said...

Hamilton seats nats ahead in both,
Aoraki sutton behind,
Banks Peninsula Carter an early lead

9/17/2005 07:49:00 PM  
Blogger Dave said...

INteresting to notice that the TV1 and TV# poolitical editors are at Labour HQ - and not a mention about the fourth highest polling party so far - where are its headquarters?

We know where the Greens are ACT and the Maori Party's are - whats the rub with the UFNZ coverage?

9/17/2005 08:15:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

They're at the backbenchers pub - just showed them on TV3.

9/17/2005 08:17:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Interestingly the TV channels aren't updating the results when the official Government webpage is (!!), and the trend is towards a widening National majority.

9/17/2005 08:20:00 PM  
Blogger Paul said...

Its looking damn fine! Epsom will be really interesting. Hope the Greens get nutured, not because of their principled appraoch, but just because they are nuts.

9/17/2005 08:37:00 PM  
Blogger tincanman said...

That is a flash applet. Really. Gorgeous. For now I'll be content to keep the Cheshire grin in my backpocket, but it is looking encouraging. Go Rodders!

9/17/2005 08:40:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

Trouble is that special votes go in big numbers for the Greens... all the youth hanging out in London vote for them.

9/17/2005 08:41:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Trend now moving back towards Labour and the Greens...

9/17/2005 08:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

greens cracked 5%..and this from conservative rural seats..woo-hoo

my call of 10% is looking good....


9/17/2005 08:49:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

I'm picking NZ First to decide the outcome. Again. From now on, only one vote counts. And that is the vote of Winston Peters.


9/17/2005 08:56:00 PM  
Blogger Paul said...

Oh well, can't have two dreams come true I suppose ... but the cross benched is far enough away.

9/17/2005 08:57:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

I get the feeling this is going to be a screwup election. Crappola.

9/17/2005 09:07:00 PM  
Blogger Bernard Woolley said...

yeah, its starting to look close and messy isn't it... 50% of votes in now.

9/17/2005 09:12:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

The crucual moment was when the Greens made the threshold. Up till then, Nat, ACT and Dunne could form a coalition. But the left couldn't. The minute the Greens made the threshold, neither left nor right could form a coalition without Peters. Altho it is still vaguely possible that Labour support might harden up enough to let them form a coalition with the Greens, Anderton, and Maori.

Trouble with MMP is that minor parties get to decide the winner after the election. Takes power away from the voters and places it in the hands of minor party leaders. Personally I'd make all the parties form their potential coalitions before the election, then give the voters a binary choice between the two of them. But how many times is it that Peters has got to pick the winner?

9/17/2005 09:15:00 PM  
Blogger Bernard Woolley said...

Hmmm, it would be interesting if the party vote for NZF or the Greens dropped a bit, they haven't got any potential electorate seats lined up have they?

9/17/2005 09:24:00 PM  
Blogger RightWingDeathBeast said...

Centre-right 62/122, WITH Peters. Geez this is too tight.

9/17/2005 09:24:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Nope, if Greens or NZF drop a little then they're out. Hide has Epsom firmly.

Likely Sharples win in Tamaki Makaurau, though only 300 majority at moment.

9/17/2005 09:28:00 PM  
Blogger Paul said...

Very tight. Possibly to come down to specials especially offshore votes, well, that's this punter's guess.

9/17/2005 09:30:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Some crazed freak is threatening to crash a plane into the Sky Tower. This will surely go down as New Zealand's weirdest election.

9/17/2005 09:32:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

Worried about the poor showing of the Bin Laden Party?

9/17/2005 09:36:00 PM  
Blogger JamesP said...

Too bad we sold off the strike wing of our Air force.

9/17/2005 09:38:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

He's talking to the cops via radio, but what can they do? Not a damn thing except evacuate the Sky Tower.

9/17/2005 09:42:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

I'm not getting TV coverage this side of the Tasman... so fill in the details. Like, what type of nutter is he and what does he want?

9/17/2005 09:43:00 PM  
Blogger Berend de Boer said...

I've been watching the skytower, it's still there.

What a luck we have fighterplanes to shoot the thing down...

9/17/2005 09:47:00 PM  
Blogger RightWingDeathBeast said...

You know as much as we do I think david.

Nats/Lab both 49. Not happy.

9/17/2005 09:48:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

No details yet. TVNZ has a helicopter camera crew in the air. Last report was he's flying over West Auckland.

9/17/2005 09:48:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Crikey. Who will Dunne go with?

9/17/2005 09:50:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Plane crashed on Kohi Beach!

9/17/2005 09:51:00 PM  
Blogger RightWingDeathBeast said...

And who will Peters go with?

9/17/2005 09:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Lindsay said...

maori party and winston hold the balance of power


9/17/2005 09:52:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

Did he change his mind about the Sky Tower and decide to terrorise some sand dunes?

9/17/2005 09:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

they weren't going to shoot the fecker down were they?

9/17/2005 09:54:00 PM  
Blogger Paul said...

Anon, we don't have a stike force anymore, there was a garage sale just recently.

9/17/2005 09:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Emily said...

this is really really bad.

9/17/2005 10:02:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Don't know if hes alive. Crashed into the sea just on the edge of the beach.

9/17/2005 10:03:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Labour pulls ahead!

9/17/2005 10:04:00 PM  
Blogger Berend de Boer said...

The election looks bad guys. It seems CentreBet and Colmar/Brunton were wrong after all. How could that happen???

9/17/2005 10:04:00 PM  
Anonymous Emily said...

this is the worst result possible. National has effectively just cannibalized the centre right vote, not grown it.

9/17/2005 10:07:00 PM  
Anonymous lindsay said...

more socialism......

9/17/2005 10:09:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Labour still pulling ahead. They generally get more out of the special votes.

9/17/2005 10:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Lindsay said...

Anderton's party only got one seat now

9/17/2005 10:13:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

As it stands the election is a draw. Dunne wouldn't go with the Greens. What will the Maori Party do?

9/17/2005 10:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

dont forget the colmon/brunton poll is never wrong!!!

9/17/2005 10:28:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Yeah. So much for that. bugger the fricken pollsters.

9/17/2005 10:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Lindsay said...

Bob Jones in his column in the herald a few weeks back picked the election result.

He said whoever gets in power won't last a year

9/17/2005 10:32:00 PM  
Blogger sagenz said...

Labour will also get the big south auckland electorates that are slow in counting. check out the count % at election.org. Looks like labour. f that

9/17/2005 10:32:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

The Maori Party might lose an overhang seat. That could make all the difference.

New Lynn is a big Labour seat behind in the count.

9/17/2005 10:36:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Assuming I understand the overhand situation correctly ?

9/17/2005 10:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Emily said...

As much as this hurts me to say, don't try and kid yourself Lindsay, this is unfortunately an incredibly stable labour led minority government Labour+Greens+Progressives. Calling on Maori party, NZFirst and NZFuture as needed. This could very easily last 3 years. There are just not enough center right voters in this country.

9/17/2005 10:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yeah..congratulations and well done to rodney...but the specials always favour labour....but especially the greens..
that and the big labour seats still to call..it looks like lab/grn/pg/maori party should be able to do it without dunne...which is good news...


9/17/2005 10:43:00 PM  
Blogger David said...

This is depressing. I'm off to cook some dinner. Thanks Sir Humphreys for providing a place for an ex-pat to hang out and keep tabs on the situation. And with 100 of you leaving to come over here every day, then there is a good chance I'll see you in person sooner rather than later.

9/17/2005 10:44:00 PM  
Anonymous lindsay said...


I understand where your coming from.

What I'm thinking is that whoever out of the two big parties gets power will find it difficult to get legislation through the house and will be at the mercy of the smaller parties continually.

9/17/2005 11:03:00 PM  
Anonymous andrei said...

Why do they call a Labour/Green coalition center left?

They are far left sigh

9/17/2005 11:04:00 PM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

God MMP sucks. What about STV instead.

9/17/2005 11:07:00 PM  
Anonymous Lindsay said...

I agree entirely

9/17/2005 11:08:00 PM  
Blogger Lucyna said...

Well, looks like we are going to be very busy here at SH for the next 3 years. And I was looking forward to slowing down...

9/17/2005 11:16:00 PM  
Blogger ZenTiger said...

ACT's victory is so bitter-sweet. Against all odds, they have grabbed Epsom, but seen their party vote plummet to 1.5%. They could have provided a good boost to National sitting on 5%.

We lose a lot of good MP's - Newman, Dr Scott, Franks, and Shirley for starters, and it would have been brilliant to have Wang and Eckhoff in parliament too.

A crushing blow to the centre right party, with a glimpse of hope. This will take some re-thinking.

9/17/2005 11:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well the masses have spoken, made their be and now must lie in it. Good bye tax cuts, hello another three years of tinkering and meddling (in everythng).

Thank god i moved to Australia. And thank god the Aussies had the sense to dodge Latham before I arrived.


9/17/2005 11:24:00 PM  
Blogger Murray said...

How can call anything that includes Keith Locke stable?

9/18/2005 12:15:00 AM  
Blogger RightWingDeathBeast said...

Things look pretty dismal, except for the specials: Less than 4.55% for the greens in the specials means they are out of parliament, which would seriously shake things up. Unlikely, since the Luddites usually gain from the specials, but the only glimmer of hope at this stage.

9/18/2005 12:17:00 AM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

NZFirst more likely to lose a seat from the specials. National might gain one, but it will be at the expense of NZF.

Clark is sucking up to Winston Peters in a TV3 interview.

9/18/2005 12:26:00 AM  
Blogger Bernard Woolley said...

hmmm, I'm half tempted not to get on the plane and come back... oh well, on the positive side, I wonder if this will be the term when the bloggers bring a government down ;)

9/18/2005 12:26:00 AM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

Oh god. Not Winston with power again. arghghaghaghagahgahgghghagrgh

9/18/2005 12:28:00 AM  
Blogger Randominanity said...

are you sure the specials support the left? I heard at the Nat's HQ in Chch that they tend do do OK in them.

9/18/2005 12:29:00 AM  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

indiscretion, the Nats would need a massive swing in the special vote towards them and It might come at the expense of NZFirst. Ie, no change to the 61 vs 61 seat split at the moment.

I really can't see Winston going with Clark, but you never know.

9/18/2005 12:34:00 AM  
Blogger Lucyna said...

Bernard, I think it's possible too. We haven't seen the full power of the blogs yet.

9/18/2005 12:35:00 AM  
Blogger Craig Ranapia said...

Humm... heard the first couple of minutes of Clark's speech in the car. Would have expected a grain of humility with a 1% margin and (by my count) eleven incumbent electorate MPs turfed out. Oddly enough, I suspect Brash will be sleeping better - and enjoying a lot more job security - than the "winner".

9/18/2005 12:40:00 AM  
Blogger sagenz said...

Maori Party would need 1300 more votes to lose 1 of its overhang seats. That would put Nat/NZF/UF in front. Alternatively National to get 16,000 more specials than Labour would also kill 1 of its overhang seats. Go Maori Party!!

9/18/2005 12:41:00 AM  
Blogger Lucyna said...

10% of the vote still hasn't been counted - that's over 200,000 votes (25,000 from overseas). Those special votes could tip the Greens below 5% (please, please, please ... ). They are apparently not going to be counted for 12 days.

It's not over yet.

9/18/2005 12:50:00 AM  
Blogger JamesP said...

Craig - Good call on Helen's speech. She talks about uniting the country but couldn't resist putting in some cheap shots on National.

What concerns me is that she is so intent on her "historic third term" that long term stability and the good of the nation may become secondary concerns in the negotiations. After all, she will probably be swanning off to a UN sinecure (or similar) so any resulting mess won't be her concern.

9/18/2005 12:51:00 AM  
Blogger span said...

just saw your thread now, very interesting reading. i live blogged it too at http://spanblather.blogspot.com (from a left perspective obviously)

i did think Clark seemed humbled (and exhausted) when she gave her speech, certainly compared to normal. and that is a very good thing. Brash is going in with 22 new MPs which is a stunning result for a party that was looking at another disastrous election only 18 months ago. all i feel at this stage, as a leftie, is relief, tinged with niggly worry about the specials. the right has done well and is on path to win well in 2008, or possibly in a mid-term election before then if Clark can't hold it together.

9/18/2005 01:02:00 AM  
Blogger Genius said...

winston can't hang parliment - he would never se the light of day again if he did that. this is his last term in government probably anyway.
so if he can't make a centre right govt he must support a centre left one. besides we want him to save us from the maori party and the greens if posible.

9/18/2005 01:04:00 AM  
Blogger Theprophet said...

Lucyna - You really shouldn't wish for the greens to be under 5%.(5.07 currently) Don't forget which very well respected and hardworking soothsayer has repeatly said they will get over 10%.Didn't you know the DPB gives you second sight.

Allah protect us.

PS: Brissie next week,Perth in Jan, one of those is us for the next 2-3 years.

9/18/2005 08:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only govt which can form right now is a Labour/Jim/Greens coaltion with NZF as support.
For this to work obviously the Greens/NZF will have to work out what they agree upon and put themselves in a position to make it work. If either greens or NZF play silly buggers - new elections - both get pummelled. Also this will make it quite a centrist govt.


9/18/2005 08:49:00 AM  
Blogger JamesP said...

Second sight? I reckon 10% for the Greens is more like double vision.

9/18/2005 09:07:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's no over till its over guys - why such defeatism?

The centre right is within one seat of forming a three-year government: all it would take is the Maori Party to abstain on confidence & supply then Don Brash is PM

What really surprises me is that no-one here has said thie following:

Mainstream New Zealand simply will not tolerate an extreme-left government that is there only because of the Maori seats gerrymander.

Add up *all* the part votes (including the wasted ones) - the RIGHT WINS by at least one percent. The people of New Zealand have spoken: Don Brash has been elected as the next primeminister.

National won the moral victory last night. If they are not in government it is because of the gerrymanders of the Maori seats and the progressives. Mainstream New Zealanders will not tolerate such a gerrymandered, illegal, government of corrput criminals

instead, I find all the comments conceding, and not even planning to get on a plane to australia..

9/18/2005 09:27:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well Anon I'm not conceding either, it is'nt over yet!.

And yes, I beleve that any Centre-left goverment that forms may prove to be fatally unstable, and for just the reasons that you outlined.Helen may find that the victor's champange is poisoned!

What I find really heartening is that the Nats improved their vote by a significant degree compared to last election.
Also note that the Centre-right picked up the provinces, thus leaving NZ with a Red State - Blue State split similar to the USA.


9/18/2005 09:42:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Brash needs to come out today and make a strong statement.

The arrogant caretaker Prime Minister thinks she's got it in the bag.

Brash needs to reaffirm that:

(a) National can still be the largest party, with 10% of the vote (specials) o be counted yet
(b) either way he has every intention of trying to put a government together.

He needs to be careful that the momentum isn't Labour's and the perception that they are again to lead the government doesn't become the reality as they are trumpeting.

9/18/2005 09:49:00 AM  
Anonymous Lindsay said...

I think National shouldn't be too disappointed if they're aren't the govt.

Labour will cobble together an arrangement on confidence and supply but will find Parliament very taxing on a day to day basis. Everything in the House will have to be rubber stamped by the small parties. National and Act will be able to raise hell on a regular basis.

Also amongst these small fry there is a lot of mistrust and plenty of big egos.

Peters, Dunne, Donald and Maori Party all have big egos. Labour will be hamstrung. Once that happens frustration will start in their own ranks (directed at the small fry).

9/18/2005 10:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can someone refresh my memory: Phule wage a bet with The Prophet about the Green reaching 10% on polling day? Let's see whether Phule is at least can honour his own words!
Keith Locke: Pay up! Might need a microscope ;)


9/18/2005 03:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ok pucca ..let's look at my predictions..

national would not make it on the day..true

national would be screwed for coalition partners because it was busy eating it's own....true

act would be back...true

maori party would get four to five seats..true

the new zealand first vote would halve from it's high of 10-12%..true

but that nz first would get back in..true.

(and of course the obvious ones like dunnes' support plummeting downwards..)

and the big one..we would end up with a centre-left grouping running the country for the forseeable future...true

(so what's a few percentage points here and there..eh..? )

btw ..if you can point me at any others who had the testicular fortitude/foolhardiness to actually make any predictions as to election outcomes..let alone get as close as i (humbly?) did...i would appreciate reading their words..


9/18/2005 05:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excuses smuses.. :) I was not commenting about your other prediction, if you read my comments carefully, you will see that all I was talking about is your bet with The Prophet about Green reaching 10%-not about the other things.
I think 5.1% and 10% is not just a couple of percentage points! So, will you own up to your wager or not?


9/18/2005 08:08:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No exocet & co - you don't get Emess's point.

If it looks as if they are losing, Don & Rodney should declare the election result illigitimate. They should say one law for all is the foundation of NZ, one person one vote, and this is so important that Helen simply cannot be allowed to form another government. They can point to the majority of all votes cast (far more right votes were wasted than left votes) to support this.

Brash and Rodney kept talking about NZ being Zimbabwe - so now they should act as if it is. Refuse to take seats in a House they consider an apartheid gerrymander. Silently blockade parilament. Get everyone to drive around town every saturday waving blue & yellow "Democracy & Freedom" flags. Take a case to the supreme court - hey, force the privy council to explicitly turn down jurisdiction to make the point. Get NZ off the list of US most favoured nations, and campaign with the EU. Petition the gov-gen for another election: under the reserve powers, following Kerr, she could immediately appont *Brash* as caretaker-pleinpotentiary (e.g. with power to govern, e.g. to introduce his tax cuts immediately) until an election could be held - say in another year.

OK, so perhaps the Fraser/Whitlam secnario is a little far fetched, but it's not beyond the bounds of possibility. If Madeline, Brash & Rodney really believe all they've said about Labour & the Maori seats, and one law for all, it's hard to see what else they can do with any integrity.

As a supporter of "NZ's Mugabe" (yeah right) I think they'd be on a great hiding to nothing. But there you go. If you hate us so much, It's worth a try. Tree of freedom and all that.

9/18/2005 08:29:00 PM  

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