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Thursday, August 25, 2005

A Two Ego Omelette

There is much talk among media commentators about The tailor's Dummy and his opposition to National's proposed tax cuts. Radio Left Wing are going flat out trying to spin this as a danger for National based on the incorrect assumption that National do not have an alternative coalition partner and that Winston First is their only chance if they cannot get 51% of the party vote.

In their rush to denigrate National, these foolish commentators commit some remarkable errors. So remarkable are they, one has to ask are these people just stupid or are they biased? I don't think they are stupid.

For starters, they ignore the fact that both National and the Maori Party have made it very clear that they are prepared to talk. My judgement is there will be an accommodation between the two. National will give way on Maori seats because the immediate benefit of tax cuts for all tax payers is more important to New Zealanders than the philosophical argument about Maori seats. Maori Party has come out strongly and rightly against welfare dependancy so I can't see them supporting the ensnarement into socialist inspired dependancy of all Kiwis earning up to $100k.

For appetisers, they all seem to be doing their electoral sums on the assumption there will be 120 seats. Of course this is nonsense. Rodney Hide is far from out of the race for Epsom. Do not be surprised if he brings between two and four seats with him. Expect the Maori Party to win at least four and maybe six seats.

For main course, have a close look at the seat of Tauranga and contemplate the negative affect on the Winston First party vote brought about by his rejection of tax cuts. Recent reports including today's RLW News indicate the likelihood of National winning Tauranga. Peters has forgotten that pensioners are tax payers and when the Gnats remind pensioners that Winston is blocking their richly deserved $10 per week cash tax bonus I think you can expect to see his party vote go through the floor. In short, the notion of parliament without either WP or NZ1 is rapidly surpassing the likelihood of parliament without Rodney Hide or Act.

Will we see a parliamentary omelette made by breaking two egos, both double yolkers? Clark and Peters?.

So, dear friends. Rush off to the electoral office calculator and do the sums. Then you will see how many party vote percentage points National needs to peg back from Labour. This is indeed a two horse race but the big money bets will pay out for third place. Winston will get fourth by a mouth, just out of the money.

But the media have not woken up yet. It either does not suit their purpose or is beyond their wit.

Posted by Adolf Fiinkensein | 8/25/2005 08:01:00 am


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good analysis Adolf Ive be wondering about a Nat Act Maori government I reckon they could work well together Some of the Maori Party stuff is pretty to the right They have some smart cookies who have realised the way forward is to get Maori back to the entrepreneur thinking that is natural for many of them Most historians especially the Left ones ignore the history on this

8/25/2005 11:54:00 am  
Blogger ZenTiger said...

"Winston will get fourth by a mouth"

Whatever Sir Humphs is paying you Adolf, I suggest we double it.

8/25/2005 12:32:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the current national candidate has done way more for tauranga as a city than Slick has ever done. Not only has he created jobs inthe area, but he's been a major force in driving the economy by way of providing workspace for small companies to run their businesses. Then he goes and builds a stadium for the punters, and backs the local NPC team to a position where they create history by winning the Ranfurly Shield. He shold be rewarded, and I will cheer him for that too.
Perhaps ACT should pull their candidate in Taurange to improve his chances, maybe National might play ball then. BUT, there may be some Mats heirachy who would rather deal with Slick than Rodney. If there are, they have short memories, and the decision will bite their bums.

Problems with NAT/MP coalition:
treaty settlements
Maori seats
Maori TV

Foreshore could be settled easily by allowing justice to take it's course with the Marlborough DC privy council rulings (does anyone know when these are due to come out?)and then seeing what happened there of.

8/25/2005 01:52:00 pm  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

I must have missed this - Marlborough DC pricy council rulings?

8/25/2005 05:29:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the thing that started the foreshore debate off. local iwi claimed the foreshore, and won all the up to the court of appeal (judges now all on the supreme court benches), the govt had the option of joining the appeal to the privy council with the marlborough district council, but refused on ideological grounds (can't go appealing to a court you believe is too colonial to be representative for NZ)

8/25/2005 08:10:00 pm  
Blogger Antarctic Lemur said...

I thought that was BoP?

8/25/2005 08:50:00 pm  
Blogger Ashley Clarkson said...

No, I personally distinctly recall it being Ports of Marlborough and the Marlborough District Council that were involved in the tassle which set the whole thing off.

8/25/2005 10:38:00 pm  

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