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Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Latest TV3 poll

TV3 announced the results of their latest poll tonight that shows a swing back to National (41%), whilst Labour dropped a few to 39%. There is of course, a very small margin and two-and-a-half weeks to the election so anything could change. My very real concern is that National and ACT (if Rodney pulls through in Epsom) are still only looking at around 43% of parliament, making a left leaning government more likely. If there is any consolation, the left government is looking like requiring more parties to form.

I haven't seen these two questions in the media yet, but they were flashed up on the news. If someone finds them could they add the correct details here. Helen appears stable at 37% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, whilst the Don rose a couple to 23%.

Here are some Clark/Brash comparisions from the equivalent poll a week ago. Interestingly, I think 53% of people thought Helen talked down to people in the poll released today.

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Posted by Bernard Woolley | 8/31/2005 07:46:00 pm


Anonymous Anonymous said...

i think once Epsom is known to poll ACT, ACT per cent jump mebe two, now say 4% ACT say five people, and like NAT mebe 42% plus , because people now szee the government possibility, like yous either pro bwash or pro helengrad 3, death
and like they see vote strategy ACT,

8/31/2005 11:37:00 pm  
Blogger Bernard Woolley said...

The only problem is that the people that go to ACT will most likely come from National. Whilst the number games of MMP may make it marginally more efficient this way, we still need more voters from Labour and NZF to move to National or ACT to ensure a winning coalition

9/01/2005 10:37:00 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pref PM doesn't mean anything much.
Helen won 6 years ago when her PPM gap was bigger that it is now.

ACT votes will only come from national, so it really doesn't matter which way those votes go.

The real point is the momentum - clearly to the Nats from UF & Labour. And - most importantly - the polls don't count the number of "chadonnay sipping national voters" - people who won't admit to their friends or pollsters that they will vote Nats, but when they get into the polling booth and see that $10,000 cheque in from of them, well, they will behave rationally.

9/01/2005 11:16:00 am  

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